Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. Learn more about this impressive prediction! Switch 2: The Projected "Clear Winner"

80 Million Units by 2028?

Image from Nintendo

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo's Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, outpacing Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch, giving it a significant head start with limited initial competition. Sales are projected at 15-17 million units in 2025, climbing to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges meeting this potential demand.

Image from Mario official Nintendo site

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the Switch 2's three-year lead (barring surprise releases) positions it for sustained dominance. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game franchises.

Nintendo's Switch is already a phenomenal success, surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Resurgent Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the gaming industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slump, the industry is poised for robust growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20 times in the past three decades. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.

The gaming audience is also expanding, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go," esports, and gaming influencers is driving hardware sales across PCs and consoles.