With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), due to lower sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also decreased by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily impacted by the strong performance of 2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Consequently, gross profit fell by 27.3% year-over-year to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has further lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, for the second consecutive time. The company anticipates selling fewer Switch units than previously projected, reducing its forecast by 1.5 million to 11 million units, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million units.

While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than anticipated. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales may be unlikely, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, with software sales declining 24.4% to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree performed exceptionally well, exceeding the sales pace of previous Mario Party titles within its first 11 weeks of release (October 17, 2024).

Significantly, active Switch users reached a record high of 129 million annual players in 2024, indicating continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that Switch unit sales declined year-over-year, but holiday season sales in some weeks even surpassed those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Switch 2's release. Nintendo confirmed upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (2025).

Nintendo reiterated the Switch 2's 2025 release, announced on January 16th, and previewed the hardware in a video. A dedicated Switch 2 Direct presentation is scheduled for April 2nd, with hands-on events planned globally.